Finance & investment
A credit asserts that something did not happen; the whole cluster is about measuring that assertion, pricing it and selling it.
The cluster’s through-line: a financial instrument in the bioeconomy asserts a counterfactual — “this tonne of CO₂ stayed out of the air”, “this clearing did not happen” — and the honest machinery of baselines, additionality and verification exists to keep the counterfactual from drifting away from the fact. Carbon has a unit because it has a molecule; biodiversity has neither, and the credit pages show what follows. A tonne of biomass is not a unit until moisture and heating value are agreed; a SAF certificate travels separately from the molecules it represents.
Nine pages cover carbon markets, biodiversity credits, feedstock hedging, spot trading, futures and SAF certificates, bio-risk modelling, satellite credit scoring and green and blue bonds.
Start with carbon markets and biofinancing: the baseline problem is posed there as science, not bookkeeping.
Articles 8
| Spot trading of biomass and biomethane Why a tonne of biomass is not a unit, and what has to be measured before it can be traded. |
| Bio-credit scoring What a satellite can and cannot tell a lender about a farm it has never visited. |
| Bio-feedstock hedging Why only some of a bioprocess's inputs can be hedged, and why the rest leave basis risk behind. |
| Bio-risk modelling for finance How a portfolio's nature exposure is calculated when nothing about it is observed. |
| Biodiversity credits Carbon has a unit because it has a molecule. Biodiversity has neither. |
| Biofuel futures and SAF certificates Why a sustainable aviation fuel certificate has to travel separately from the fuel. |
| Carbon markets and biofinancing A credit asserts something that did not happen, which is why the baseline is the whole instrument. |
| Green and blue bonds, debt-for-nature swaps These instruments verify spending, not ecology — and under water, verification gets physically harder. |