Biofuel futures & SAF certificates

01Overview and value chain

Markers: [EC: ReFuelEU Aviation Regulation (effective 2025-01-01) | OECD: Bioeconomy policy & bioenergy | Regulator: EPA (US RFS/LCFS), CFTC (US derivatives), CORSIA/ICAO]

Biofuel futures and SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) certificates are the exchange-traded and over-the-counter financial instruments that let airlines, refiners and traders hedge the price gap between SAF and conventional Jet-A kerosene, and prove regulatory compliance with sustainability mandates without physically delivering every certified liter of fuel to every consuming airport. Because SAF costs 2.5-4x more than standard jet fuel, ICE reported record environmental-market trading activity in 2025 — 20.9 million environmental futures and options contracts traded worldwide, up roughly 4% year-on-year — a substantial share driven by the SAF and renewable-fuel derivatives that let market participants lock in fuel costs 12-24 months forward. CME Group continued expanding its renewable-fuel futures suite in 2026, listing new contracts including Chicago Ethanol (Platts) BALMO futures and Gulf Coast CBOB Gasoline futures alongside its existing renewable-diesel and RIN-linked products. The certificate side of the market runs on Book-and-Claim registries: RSB (Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials) published a March 2026 study on regulatory additionality for Brazil’s SAF Book & Claim market to prevent double-counting, building on its 2024 Book & Claim Recognition Procedure and February 2025 Book & Claim Manual v4. ISCC, working with fuel producer OMV and aircraft maker Airbus, announced a February 2026 collaboration to strengthen credible Book & Claim chain-of-custody models, extending its Credit Transfer System that lets verified SAF sustainability claims be tracked and transferred after fuel uptake. Neste, the world’s largest SAF producer by capacity, allocated approximately 1.5 million tonnes of SAF from roughly 3.3 million tonnes/year of total renewable capacity across its three refineries in 2025, continuing to operate as the physical trading anchor whose forward sales and OTC hedges underpin much of the exchange-traded derivatives market.

The key directions of biofuel futures and SAF certificates are:

1. Exchange-traded SAF futures and options: standardized contracts on exchanges like ICE and CME Group, priced off Argus/Platts indices, letting airlines lock in fuel costs 12-24 months forward.
2. Book-and-Claim certificate registries: distributed ledgers (RSB, ISCC) that let an airline purchase the verified environmental attribute of SAF injected at one airport without physically routing that fuel to the airline’s own flights.
3. ASTM D7566 blend certification: the physical and chemical specification standard SAF must meet when blended with conventional Jet-A, underpinning every certificate’s claim to being a genuine sustainable-fuel attribute.
4. CORSIA/EU ETS compliance reporting: the final step converting a retired Book-and-Claim certificate into an official emissions-reduction credit recognized by international aviation carbon schemes.

Sectoral value chain

[Physical SAF production & ASTM D7566 certification] ──> [ISCC/RSB sustainability validation] ──> [Book-and-Claim token generation]
                                                                                                          │
                                                                                             (Exchange listing & hedging)
                                                                                                          │
     [CORSIA/EU ETS compliance credit] <──── [Certificate retirement] <─── [Spot trading / futures clearing on ICE/EEX]

Value chain levels

Cross-cutting technologies of the sector:

• Book-and-Claim distributed ledgers: blockchain-based registries (built on platforms such as Corda) that prevent double-counting of the same tonne of SAF being claimed by both a US airport and a European airline, carrying immutable metadata on production method, feedstock and certified CO2 reduction.
• SAF price hedging algorithms: specialized trading software that calculates delta-hedging ratios by comparing physical jet-fuel prices, carbon-allowance prices and SAF certificate spot prices, automatically opening offsetting exchange positions to lock in an airline’s fuel margin.
• ASTM D7566 blend certification: the physical specification (density, freeze point, aromatic content, thermal-oxidative stability) every SAF blend must satisfy before it can be legally injected into commercial jet fuel supply.

02US

The United States combines IRA-driven SAF blending incentives with the world’s most active biofuel derivatives exchanges, anchored by record 2025 environmental-trading volumes.

ICE’s record environmental trading, CME Group’s expanded renewable-fuel futures, Book-and-Claim/RIN integration

• ICE’s record trading: Intercontinental Exchange reported 20.9 million environmental futures and options contracts traded worldwide in 2025, up roughly 4% year-on-year, a record for the exchange’s environmental-market business that includes SAF and renewable-fuel derivatives.
• CME Group’s expanded suite: CME Group listed new futures contracts in 2026 including Chicago Ethanol (Platts) BALMO futures and Gulf Coast CBOB Gasoline futures, extending its existing renewable-diesel and SAF Book-and-Claim swap products integrated with the M-RETS system and EPA RFS RIN registries.
• Book-and-Claim/RIN integration: US airlines commonly purchase the environmental effect of SAF produced and injected at one airport (such as Los Angeles International) while receiving electronic certificates crediting RFS RINs and LCFS credits, decoupling physical fuel logistics from compliance accounting.

03CN

China is building sovereign SAF trading infrastructure ahead of mandatory 2026 blending quotas, leveraging its position as the world’s largest producer of used cooking oil feedstock.

Shanghai Futures Exchange’s planned yuan-denominated SAF contracts, UCO feedstock export dominance, CAAC blockchain coordination

• Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE): preparing to launch domestic SAF futures denominated in yuan, aiming to establish an Asian price benchmark independent of Western indices, as China’s civil aviation authority moves toward mandatory SAF blending quotas starting in 2026.
• UCO feedstock export dominance: China is the world’s largest producer of used cooking oil, the primary HEFA feedstock, with domestic petrochemical majors exporting millions of tonnes of SAF and biodiesel to the EU and US, requiring deep integration into international derivatives markets to hedge refining margins against feedstock price swings.
• CAAC blockchain coordination: China’s Civil Aviation Administration oversees SAF supply chains, integrating them with a national blockchain platform for clearing green aviation certificates.

04EU

The European Union operates the world’s most tightly regulated SAF derivatives market, driven by binding ReFuelEU Aviation blending mandates and heavy compliance penalties.

RSB’s Book & Claim additionality framework, ISCC’s Airbus/OMV collaboration, ReFuelEU Aviation mandate penalties

• RSB’s Book & Claim framework: published a March 2026 study on regulatory additionality for Brazil’s SAF Book & Claim market to prevent double-counting, building on its 2024 Book & Claim Recognition Procedure and February 2025 Book & Claim Manual v4 governing an ecosystem of independent registries.
• ISCC’s Airbus/OMV collaboration: announced a February 2026 partnership with fuel producer OMV and aircraft maker Airbus to strengthen credible Book & Claim chain-of-custody models, extending ISCC’s Credit Transfer System for tracking verified SAF sustainability claims after uptake.
• ReFuelEU Aviation penalties: since January 1, 2025, all flights departing EU airports must blend at least 2% SAF, rising to 6% by 2030 and 70% by 2050, with non-compliant airlines facing penalties double the Jet-A/SAF price differential per under-delivered tonne — a structural driver of demand for SAF hedging and certificate-trading instruments.

05Leading companies and research institutes

06Tech stack and innovations

The biofuel futures and SAF certificate stack combines chemical fuel specifications with blockchain-based registries and automated hedging software:

1. ASTM D7566 fuel specifications:
   • SAF cannot be used undiluted; it is blended with conventional Jet-A/Jet-A1 kerosene at concentrations up to 50% depending on production pathway, with the blend required to meet density (775-840 kg/m³), freeze-point (below -47°C) and aromatic-content (under 0.5% in neat SAF) thresholds under ASTM D7566.
2. Book-and-Claim blockchain registries:
   • Distributed-ledger platforms prevent the same tonne of SAF being claimed twice by different parties, carrying immutable metadata on batch serial number, production method (HEFA, Fischer-Tropsch, Alcohol-to-Jet), feedstock type and certified CO2-reduction coefficient.
3. Automated delta-hedging algorithms:
   • Specialized trading platforms compare physical jet-fuel prices, carbon-allowance prices and SAF certificate spot prices, automatically opening offsetting exchange positions to lock in an airline’s or trader’s fuel margin.

07Value chains and production pipelines

Industrial pipeline for issuing, trading and retiring a Book-and-Claim SAF certificate

┌───────────────────────────┐      ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ 1. SAF production &        │ ───> │ 2. Physical injection at   │
│    ASTM D7566 QC                │      │    airport fuel system          │
└───────────────────────────┘      └───────────────────────────┘
                                                 │
                                                 ▼
┌───────────────────────────┐      ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ 4. Exchange listing &       │ <─── │ 3. Book-and-Claim token   │
│    spot/futures trading         │      │    generation in registry       │
└───────────────────────────┘      └───────────────────────────┘
              │
              ▼
┌───────────────────────────┐      ┌───────────────────────────┐
│ 5. Certificate retirement  │ ───> │ 6. CORSIA/EU ETS compliance│
│    against specific flight      │      │    reporting & credit           │
└───────────────────────────┘      └───────────────────────────┘

Stage 1: SAF production and ASTM D7566 quality control

A refinery hydroprocesses used cooking oil or another feedstock into SAF blend stock, with a certified laboratory verifying compliance with ASTM D7566 (density, freeze point, thermal-oxidative stability) before the batch receives its quality passport and ISCC Proof of Sustainability certificate.

Stage 2: Physical injection at airport fuel system

The certified SAF batch is transported and injected into an airport’s fuel storage system, with commercial flow meters recording the exact volume and local scheduled flights registering physical fuel consumption.

Stage 3: Book-and-Claim token generation in registry

The physical environmental attribute is locked at the point of injection, and a registry such as RSB or ISCC generates a Book-and-Claim token (one token per metric tonne) carrying metadata on feedstock origin and certified CO2 reduction percentage.

Stage 4: Exchange listing and spot/futures trading

The token is listed on an energy exchange, where an airline can purchase it through a broker; the exchange clears the trade and records the transfer of ownership.

Stage 5: Certificate retirement against specific flight

The purchasing airline initiates retirement of the token in the registry, linking it to a specific flight number and permanently extinguishing the token in exchange for a digital retirement certificate.

Stage 6: CORSIA/EU ETS compliance reporting and credit

The retirement certificate is submitted to environmental auditors, generating an official emissions-reduction credit recognized under CORSIA or EU ETS, satisfying the airline’s regulatory mandate and closing out any related hedge positions.